38,000 businesses to transfer by 2028: what it means for your price

About 38,000 businesses could change hands in Quebec by the end of 2028, and nearly 6 in 10 owners have no plan. For Quebec business transfers, that means many companies for sale at the same time. Buyers will have choices, and they'll pick the ones that are ready first.

What the study says

The figures come from the Étude nationale du repreneuriat et des transferts d'entreprise, 3rd edition, published in August 2026 (see the study summary, in French). Two findings stand out:

• about 38,000 Quebec businesses could be transferred between 2026 and the end of 2028;
• nearly 6 in 10 owner-managers have no transfer plan.

We stick to those two figures. The rest of this article is our reading of what they mean for an owner thinking of selling in one to four years.

What changes: supply and demand

A price is where what sellers offer meets what buyers are looking for. When many businesses come to market in the same window, buyers have more options. They can compare, take their time and set aside the files that worry them.

That doesn't mean prices will drop across the board. Nobody can predict that, and we won't. But it does change how buyers behave:

• They sort faster. An incomplete file or a business that rests entirely on its owner may get set aside, simply because there are other options.
• They compare more. A buyer, a competitor or a fund looking at several businesses in the same industry sees right away which one is easiest to take over.
• They negotiate with more confidence. When a buyer has other choices, they can ask for more of the price as an earn-out, a longer transition or a lower price.

Why preparation makes the difference

The second figure matters most for you. If nearly 6 in 10 owners have no plan, you can expect a good share of the businesses coming to market to arrive unprepared: no written processes, clients who only know the owner, financial statements that were never normalized.

In that context, a prepared business stands out. Not because it's bigger or more profitable, but because it's easier to buy: the buyer sees who will run things after you, their bank understands the file, and due diligence holds no nasty surprises.

A business that's easy to buy attracts more than one buyer. And it's having several serious buyers, more than the general state of the market, that protects your price. We explain how in creating competition between buyers.

What these figures don't say

The study counts businesses that could be transferred. It doesn't say how many will be sold to a third party, how many will pass to family or employees, or how many will close for lack of a successor. Nor does it say at what price. Be wary of anyone who turns it into a precise forecast of what your business is worth.

It also doesn't say buyers are scarce. Competitors looking to grow, funds, individual buyers, managers ready to take over: buyers exist. But each has limited time and a cautious bank. They'll go first to the files they can understand quickly and finance without piling on guarantees. A sale to employees, for example, often needs vendor financing and a clear file to convince the lender.

So the only solid conclusion is this: in a market where many sellers aren't ready, being ready is an advantage.

What an unprepared sale looks like

From the owner's side, the story is often the same. A buyer shows interest, then asks for two more years of the owner's presence. The bank may want to keep the owner's personal guarantee on the company's loans. A large share of the price ends up conditional on results the owner no longer controls. None of this is unusual; it's how buyers protect themselves when a business depends on one person. The owners who avoid it are the ones who started early.

Two sellers, same year: a made-up case in Mauricie

Picture two door and window manufacturers, one in Trois-Rivières, the other in Shawinigan. Neither exists. Same size: about $5M in revenue, some thirty employees, owners in their sixties. Both go up for sale the same year.

The first comes to market as is. Its owner does every quote. The financial statements mix personal and business expenses. No document explains how things get done. Buyers who look at it hesitate, ask for time, then often move on to another file.

At the second, the owner has done the work over three years. An operations director runs the day-to-day. Quotes follow a written method. EBITDA is normalized and a data room is ready. Three buyers show interest at the same time: a competitor, a buyer backed by a fund, and two of the company's managers.

Same industry, same market, same year. But she negotiates with three options, and he with one or none. Nothing guarantees an outcome. The direction of the effect, though, is clear.

What you can do this week

1. Check whether you have a plan. Not an intention: a written plan, with a target date and steps.
2. Take the two-week test. If you left for two weeks without a phone, what would stop?
3. Ask your accountant whether your EBITDA is normalized. If not, plan for it in the coming year.
4. List your three biggest clients and who holds each relationship. If the answer is "me," that's a priority project.
5. Put your sale date on a calendar. Then read preparing the sale two years ahead to see what needs to happen first.

You don't control the number of sellers

The market for Quebec business transfers will be crowded in the coming years. You don't control how many businesses are for sale. You control the state of yours. Every project you finish, from owner independence to documentation, makes your business easier to buy and gives you more weight at the table.

To understand what moves the price, read what is your business worth, then step 8: sell at the right price. A win-win deal starts with a file that inspires confidence.

Do it with a pro

Alone, preparing a business while running it often takes more time than you have. With us and our regional partner, the work happens on site, alongside your operations, so you come to market with a business that stands out. Start with our 45-minute free audit.

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